Friday, December 5, 2008

商業不動產頹勢已現

商業不動產頹勢已現

John許:商業不動產頹勢已現
業主須盡快調整腳步採取因應措施
(記者黃思齊報導)不動產市場的頹勢,已經從一般住宅逐漸擴散到商用房地產範圍,許多商場的空屋率上升速度明顯加快,STC資產管理公司總裁John許呼籲,商業物業的業主必須盡快調整自己的腳步,採取因應措施,因為明年也不會是「好年冬」。
John許指出,景氣不佳導致生意難做,不僅是零售業叫苦連天,餐飲業也面臨即使削價,似乎也無法招徠人氣的窘境。房客收攤,房東面臨空屋率節節上升,已經夠嚇人了,如果您又是在二○○四、二○○五年購入物業的房東,還必須擔心五年貸款期限差不多到期,要面臨與銀行續約的關頭,那才真是令人寢食難安哩!
John許解釋道,空屋率上升導致Cap Rate順勢爬升,致令不動產價值下滑,銀行眼見抵押品縮水,尤其又在現在這種風聲鶴唳的時機,絕不可能借出高於抵押品的款項,差額部分業主必需以現金補上,沒有錢,就只能將不動產脫手。這種現象在一九九○年初曾發生過,許多人因此傾家蕩產。「如果這種情形在明年重演,我不會覺得意外。」John 許表示。
John 許指出,近期的商業不動產交易價格,雖然Cap Rate仍維持在6%左右,但在比較偏遠的地區,已經看到Cap Rate到8%甚或到9%的情形了。雪上加霜的是,根據經濟數據,明年的失業率還會繼續攀升,這絕對是商業不動產所有人最不願聽到的消息。John許建議指出,「著急於事無補,當務之急是趕快找進高品質的房客,撐起商場,爭取時間,才有一搏的機會。」
要如何讓好房客願意進駐呢?「優質的管理是最重要的一環。」John許說道。「在與許多主流商家接觸的過程中,我很清楚地了解他們的要求。他們希望能有好的服務、好的管理,能審時度勢適度地為房客調整租金,甚至能想方設法為房客promote生意,站在一起度過景氣蕭條期。」
對於有意進入商業不動產行業的有心人,John許建議,「您必須要先做功課」。雖然可能明、後年才用得著,但是您要學會如何計算Cap Rate、您要學如何招進好房客,還要學如何看合約等等,「有了充分的準備,才能註冊明日的成功」。
讀者如果還有有關商業不動產的問題需要諮詢,歡迎與John 許聯絡,電話:562-695-1513。

Investors: Be Prepared…
John, “We must be ready to take action.”

The effects of the real estate market meltdown have expanded from residential market into the commercial market – as evidenced by the increase in vacancies in retail and office spaces. John Hsu of STC Management warns that commercial property owners must quickly adjust themselves to accommodate the impending market conditions. Many experts project that the economy will not bounce back until 2010.
The economic conditions have painted a landscape that is not conducive to small business owners. The effects are felt by not only the retailer but also food services/restaurant owner. The unfriendly business environment in addition to the exponential increase in vacancies are already factors that affect landlords. However landlords who got into the commercial real estate market in 2004 and 2005 have the added pressure of trying to refinance their five year loans in a very non-liquid banking environment. As vacancies increase, the CAP rate also increases, resulting in the decrease in value of the property – and finally leaving the owners upside down on their loan. The current economic climate is very similar to the RTC days back in the ‘90s. Many people filed for bankruptcy and John says he would not be surprised if the same situation happened again.
Even though recent sales in the commercial real estate market still post 6% CAP rates; in suburban areas, CAP rates at 8% even 9% have become commonplace. To make the situation even worse, many experts project an increase in unemployment rates – news that is not welcoming. John points out, “Nothing can be accomplished if we panic. Instead, we need to quickly find well qualified tenants to help support the retail center and buy time in order for the opportunity to rebound.”
“There are many ways to attract well qualified tenants,” John suggests, “quality management is the first step. In my experience and encounters with tenants, I understand the tenant’s needs. They wish they could have better service and management. They also hope for a landlord that can appropriately adjust rent schedules, provide suggestions to promote tenant’s business and weather through these tough economic times.”
As for potential investors, John recommends, “you must do your homework.” Even though these ideas may not be implemented until next year or the year after, it is still wise to understand how to calculate CAP rate, bring in good tenants, and understand lease agreements. “Only with adequate preparation can one be able to take advantage of opportunities.” If there should be any questions or comments, John would be more than happy to assist (562)695-1513.

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